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 Post subject: China - The Bubble
PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:03 pm 
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Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2009 3:39 pm
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Originally posted Sat Aug 15, 2009 to the main site on forumup:

This thread is for tracking China analysis that shows the darker side of the Chinese economy. For the most part, the MSM has been portraying China as the source of any global recovery, but since China is a controlled society and any information that is released must be approved, it is difficult to determine the true state of the Chinese economy. This thread is to be used as a resource and not an official statement/position on the Chinese economy.

I will update the initial post in this thread as I obtain new information and I welcome any relevant additions others may find.


When China prepares its "Great Escape" from the dollar-trap for the end of summer 2009
April 16, 2009

http://www.leap2020.eu/When-China-prepares-its-Great-Escape-from-the-dollar-trap-for-the-end-of-summer-2009_a3582.html

Xie: Chinese Banks Funding Commodities Speculation, Casting Doubt on Recovery
June 20, 2009

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html

China's overdue credit-card debt increases
June 23, 2009

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinese-increasingly-overdue-on-credit-cards?siteid=rss&rss=1

China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
June 28, 2009

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5675198/Chinas-banks-are-an-accident-waiting-to-happen-to-every-one-of-us.html

Bloomberg Misses Real Story on Latest Official Chinese Comments on Dollar
July 02, 2009

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/bloomberg-misses-real-story-on-latest.html

Chinese bank announces bombshell
July 10, 2009

http://www.thedailybell.com/bellPage.asp?nid=443&fl=0

Continued Commentary On The China Commodities Bubble
July 13, 2009

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/continued-commentary-on-china.html

The Chinese Stock Bubble: Watch For "Critical Level Around July 17-27, 2009"
July 14, 2009

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/chinese-stock-bubble-watch-for-critical.html

Galbraith On China's Drastically Overstated Trade Surplus
July 31, 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/galbraith-chinas-drastically-overstated-trade-surplus

<Chinese Title> The Chinese Bubble
August 03, 2009

http://www.my1510.cn/article.php?id=e3fc777cdd24720a

China's growth an accounting miracle
August 07, 2009

http://contrarianedge.com/2009/08/07/china%E2%80%99s-growth-an-accounting-miracle

Chinese Exports Fell 23% YoY In July
August 08, 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinese-exports-fell-23-yoy-july

Standard Chartered On The End Of China's "V"
August 12, 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/standard-chartered-end-chinas-v

Hugh Hendry walks around China
August 19, 2009

http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/08/19/hugh-hendy-walks-around-china/

Chinese Pig Farmers Speculating On Metals
August 19, 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinese-pig-farmers-speculating-metals

China Construction Bank Profit Drops on Loan Margins (hints at rising defaults)
August 21, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqNWFi.cuhGU

China Said to Plan Rules Tightening Capital of Banks (hints at rising defaults)
August 21, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aO4YE2uqvJKY

China's Credit Bubbleicious Trade Balance Pain
August 21, 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinas-credit-bubbleicious-trade-balance-pain

China Construction Bank Sees Asset Bubbles Due to Excess Cash
August 25, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a52qvlURcU.0

Japanese Imports and Exports Show no Signs of Global Green Shoots (decrease in Chinese imports from Japan)
August 26, 2009

http://www.escapethenewgreatdepression.com/2009/08/26/japanese-imports-and-exports-show-no-signs-of-global-green-shoots/

Wen Signals Unprecendented Spending Will Drive Chinese Rebound
September 10, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ao_IwzTFZwzU

China Investment Drive May Imperil Local Governments
September 22, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=awS2e7bzZsuw

China Defaulting Loans Soar, Insolvency Lawyer Says
February 05, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aJhBD4AeX8WA

China’s Hidden Debt Risks 2012 Crisis, Northwestern’s Shih Says
March 03, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aN94MF7BDx_A

China to Nullify Financing Guarantees by Local Governments
March 08, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIcTfdm5rWdY&pos=1

China in Midst of ‘Greatest Bubble in History,’ Rickards Says
March 17, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNZe4JWeV1aw

Sale of residential land temporarily halted
March 24, 2010

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/24/content_9631749.htm

China Fails to Complete Bill Sales on Rate Concern
April 09, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=awXzP6Qfum3Q

Beijing city limits home-buyers to one new apartment: Media
April 30, 2010

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Beijing-city-limits-home-buyers-to-one-new-apartment-Media/articleshow/5876705.cms

China May ‘Crash’ in Next 9 to 12 Months, Faber Says
May 03, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aMbfBKW.uKn4

There Are Now Enough Vacant Properties In China To House Over Half Of America
September 08, 2010

http://www.businessinsider.com/there-are-now-enough-vacant-properties-in-china-to-house-over-half-of-america-2010-9

Is The New China The Real McCoy? (Part II)
November 18, 2010

http://club.ino.com/trading/2010/11/is-the-new-china-the-real-mccoy-part-ii/

China's credit bubble on borrowed time as inflation bites
December 05, 2010

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8182605/Chinas-credit-bubble-on-borrowed-time-as-inflation-bites.html

Chinese bank scams vindicate local claims (where there is one, there are others)
January 18, 2011

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/chinese-bank-scams-vindicate-local-claims/story-e6frg8zx-1225989865717

SocGen crafts strategy for China hard-landing
January 20, 2011

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8272388/SocGen-crafts-strategy-for-China-hard-landing.html

Appeasement is the proper policy towards Confucian China
January 23, 2011

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8277143/Appeasement-is-the-proper-policy-towards-Confucian-China.html

Exclusive: China to clean up billions in local government debt
May 30, 2011

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/31/us-china-economy-debt-idUSTRE74U3CO20110531

New government report uncovers China's $1.7 trillion "time bomb"
June 27, 2011

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/8022/China/rss

Moody's: Scale of Problem Loans to Chinese Local Governments Greater Than Anticipated
July 05, 2011

http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5273018/moody-s-scale-of-problem-loans-to-chinese-local-governments-greater-than-anticipated

China's epic hangover begins
December 14, 2011

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8957289/Chinas-epic-hangover-begins.html

Even Goldman Says China Is Cooking The Books
January 13, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-13/even-goldman-says-china-cooking-economic-books

China may not overtake America this century after all
May 08, 2013

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10044456/China-may-not-overtake-America-this-century-after-all.html

Fitch warns on risks from shadow banking in China
June 10, 2013

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-china-lendingbre9590un-20130610,0,3356129.story

China Interbank Market Freezes As Overnight Repo Explodes To 25%
June 19, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-19/china-interbank-market-freezes-overnight-repo-explodes-25

China's economy is freezing up. How freaked out should we be?
June 20, 2013

http://dignitatem-societatis.newsvine.com/_news/2013/06/20/19061934-chinas-economy-is-freezing-up-how-freaked-out-should-we-be

The Days Of The Super-Powered Chinese Economy Are Over
June 28, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-28/days-super-powered-chinese-economy-are-over

Chinese banking: a Wild West in the Far East?
July 6, 2013

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10164580/Chinese-banking-a-Wild-West-in-the-Far-East.html#disqus_thread

China defies IMF on mounting credit risk and need for urgent reform
July 17, 2013

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10186546/China-defies-IMF-on-mounting-credit-risk-and-need-for-urgent-reform.html

How Deep Is The Real Economic Problem In China?
July 25, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-25/how-deep-real-economic-problem-china

Welcome To Jiangsu, China's Flashing Red Canary-In-The-Coalmine
July 26, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-26/welcome-jiangsu-chinas-flashing-red-canary-coalmine

China To Kick Bad Debt Hornets Nest
July 28, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-28/china-kick-hornets-nest-non-performing-loans-audit-government-debt

China’s Housing - Living In A Bubble
July 31, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-31/guest-post-china%E2%80%99s-housing-living-n-bubble

Guest Post: Is China Doomed?
August 10, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-10/guest-post-china-doomed

Credit crisis begins to cripple Chinese cities
August 17, 2013

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-08-17/news/41420953_1_coal-mining-cities-wenzhou

Michael Pettis On China's Urbanization Fallacy
August 17, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-17/michael-pettis-chinas-urbanization-fallacy

China's Unprecedented Demographic Problem Takes Shape
August 23, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/477976

Chinese Province 'Busted' For Fake Data; Exaggerated 2013 Output By Over 150%
September 5, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-05/chinese-province-busted-fake-data-exaggerated-2013-output-over-150

China Beige Book Exposes Government Lies: "Conventional Wisdom Of Economic Expansion In China Seriously Flawed"
September 25, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-25/china-beige-book-exposes-government-lies-conventional-wisdom-economic-expansion-chin

Asia Slides As China Overnight Repo Soars On Fears Of Another Domestic "Tapering" Episode, Preparations For Bank Loan Defaults
October 23, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-23/asian-markets-slide-china-braces-loan-defaults-telegraphs-another-liquidity-tapering

Chart Of The Day: How China's Stunning $15 Trillion In New Liquidity Blew Bernanke's QE Out Of The Water
November 25, 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-25/chart-day-how-chinas-stunning-15-trillion-new-liquidity-blew-bernankes-qe-out-water

Did Soros Just Predict a China Crash?
January 8, 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/did-soros-just-predict-a-china-crash-.html

China's Peer-To-Peer Lending Bubble Bursts As Up To 90% Of Companies Expected To Default
January 13, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-12/chinas-peer-peer-lending-bubble-bursts-90-companies-expected-default

As China Orders Its Smaller Banks To Load Up On Cash, Is The Biggest Ever "Unlimited QE" About To Be Unleashed?
February 10, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-10/china-orders-its-smaller-banks-load-cash-biggest-ever-unlimited-qe-about-be-unleashe

It Begins... Another High-Yield Chinese Shadow Banking Trust Defaults
February 12, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-12/it-begins-another-high-yield-chinese-shadow-banking-trust-defaults

World asleep as China tightens deflationary vice
February 12, 2014

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10634339/World-asleep-as-China-tightens-deflationary-vice.html

Chinese Capital Markets Frozen As Bad Loans Soar To Highest Since Crisis
February 14, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-14/chinese-capital-markets-frozen-bad-loans-soar-highest-crisis

The Chinese Dominoes Are About To Fall: Complete List Of Upcoming Trust Defaults
February 19, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-19/chinese-dominoes-are-about-fall-complete-list-upcoming-trust-defaults

China Faces "Vicious Circle" As Commodity Collateral Collapses
February 21, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-21/china-faces-vicious-circle-commodity-collateral-collapses

"The Pig In The Python Is About To Be Expelled": A Walk Thru Of China's Hard Landing, And The Upcoming Global Harder Reset
February 21, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-20/pig-python-about-be-expelled-walk-thru-chinas-hard-landing-and-coming-global-hard-re

China Credit Markets Tumble Most In 3 Months As Default Spooks Lenders, Deals Pulled
March 6, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-06/china-credit-markets-tumble-most-3-months-default-spooks-lenders-deals-pulled

Zombies Spreading Shows Chaori Default Just Start: China Credit
March 6, 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/zombies-spreading-shows-chaori-default-just-start-china-credit.html

China Gets 1st Onshore Bond Default as Chaori Doesn’t Pay
March 7, 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/chaori-solar-fails-to-make-interest-payments-on-bond-wsj-says.html

Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record
March 7, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/chinese-exports-collapse-leading-2nd-largest-trade-deficit-record

"Magic" Collateral: A Frank Look At The Sheer Credit Horror About To Be Unleashed In China
March 11, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-11/magic-collateral-frank-look-sheer-credit-horror-about-be-unleashed-china

The Second Chinese Corporate Default: Real Estate Developer With CNY3.5 Billion In Debt Collapses
March 17, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-17/second-chinese-corporate-default-real-estate-developer-cny35-billion-debt-collapses

The Dominoes Begin To Fall In China
March 18, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-18/dominoes-begin-fall-china

PBOC Denies It Will Bail Out Collapsed Real Estate Developer While Chinese Property Developer Market Crashes
March 18, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-18/pboc-denies-it-will-bail-out-collapsed-real-estate-developer-while-chinese-property-

China's "Minsky Moment" Is Here, Morgan Stanley Finds
March 19, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/chinas-minsky-moment-here-morgan-stanley-finds

The Music Just Ended: "Wealthy" Chinese Are Liquidating Offshore Luxury Homes In Scramble For Cash
March 19, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/music-just-ended-wealthy-chinese-are-liquidating-offshore-luxury-homes-scramble-cash

The Chinese Yuan Is Collapsing
March 19, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/chinese-yuan-collapsing

Dropping Like Flies: Largest Steel Maker In China's Shanxi Province Defaults On CNY 3 Billion In Debt
March 20, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-20/dropping-flies-largest-steel-maker-chinas-shanxi-province-defaults-cny-3-billion-deb

How China Imported A Record $70 Billion In Physical Gold Without Sending The Price Of Gold Soaring
March 23, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-22/how-china-imported-record-70-billion-physical-gold-without-sending-price-gold-soarin

China's Credit Pipeline Slams Shut: Companies Scramble For The Last Drops Of Liquidity
March 27, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-26/chinas-credit-pipeline-slams-shut-companies-scramble-last-drops-liquidity

China’s Monumental Ponzi: Here’s How It Unravels
March 31, 2014

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/chinas-monumental-ponzi-heres-how-it-unravels/

Second Chinese Bond Company Defaults, First High Yield Bond Issuer
April 1, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-01/second-chinese-bond-company-defaults-first-high-yield-bond-issuer

And The "Fake" Headline Of The Day Award Goes To...
April 11, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-11/and-fake-headline-day-award-goes

How China's Commodity-Financing Bubble Becomes Globally Contagious
April 21, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-21/how-chinas-commodity-financing-bubble-becomes-globally-contagious

Leaked Recording Reveals True State Of Chinese Housing Market
May 02, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-02/leaked-recording-reveals-true-state-chinese-housing-market

At Least 6 Chinese Cities Have Bailed Out Their Real Estate Markets In The Last Month
May 16, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/least-6-chinese-cities-have-bailed-out-there-real-estate-markets-last-month

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang Punctures The Keynesian "Excess Savings" Myth
May 22, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-22/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-punctures-keynesian-excess-savings-myth

China Scrambling After "Discovering" Thousands Of Tons Of Rehypothecated Copper, Aluminum Missing
June 04, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-04/china-scrambling-after-discovering-thousands-tons-rehypothecated-copper-aluminum-mis

More On China's "Missing Commodity" Scandal: Fallout Spreads As Banks Get Involved
June 05, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-05/chinas-missing-commodity-scandal-spreads-banks-fear-fallout-rehypothecated-funding-d

Western Banks Scramble As China's "Rehypothecation Evaporation" Goes Global
June 07, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-07/western-banks-scramble-chinas-rehypothecation-evaporation-goes-global

China's "Evaporated" Collateral Scandal Spreads To Second Port
June 10, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-10/chinas-evaporated-collateral-scandal-spreads-second-port

Iron Ore Prices Hit Fresh 21-Month Lows As Commodity Ponzi Probe Escalates
June 13, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-13/iron-ore-prices-hit-fresh-21-month-lows-commodity-ponzi-probe-escalates

China's Collateral Rehypothecation Fraud Is Systemic
June 14, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-14/chinas-collateral-rehypothecation-fraud-systemic

CITIC Missing Half Its Alumina, Seeks Legal Action As Qingdao Rehypothecation Scandal Goes Nuclear
June 17, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-17/cotton-crushed-4-year-lows-qingdao-commodity-ponzi-probe-widens

China's Port-Ponzi-Probe Spreads To Entire Warehousing Sector
June 23, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-23/chinas-port-ponzi-probe-spreads-entire-warehousing-sector

Bronze Swan Lands: Goldman Explains How The China Commodity Unwind Will Happen
June 09, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-09/bronze-swan-lands-goldman-explains-how-china-commodity-unwind-will-happen

Up To $80 Billion Gold-Backed Loans Are Falsified, Chinese Auditor Warns
June 26, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-26/80-billion-gold-backed-loans-are-falsified-chinese-auditor-warns

China Admits First Official Local-Government Loan Default
July 01, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-01/china-admits-first-official-local-government-loan-default

"This Could Be The Last Straw" 90% Of China Loan Guarantors Bankrupt
July 07, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-07/could-be-last-straw-90-china-loan-guarantors-bankrupt

Chinese Commodity Contagion Leads To First Letter Of Credit Settlement Failure
July 18, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/chinese-commodity-contagion-leads-first-letter-credit-settlement-failure

Insolvent Chinese Construction Company Gets Last Minute Bailout, Avoids China's Second Bond Default
July 23, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/insolvent-chinese-construction-company-gets-last-minute-bailout-avoids-chinas-second

China's Solution To “Property Companies Facing Huge Debt Burdens”: Much More Debt
July 28, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-28/chinas-solution-%E2%80%9Cproperty-companies-facing-huge-debt-burdens%E2%80%9D-much-more-debt

Chinese 'Fake' Trade Data Remains "A Bit Of A Mystery" Despite Clean-Up Efforts
July 29, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/chinese-fake-trade-data-remains-bit-mystery-despite-clean-efforts

Asian Property Prices Are Falling "As If There's A Global Financial Crisis"
September 01, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-01/asian-property-prices-are-falling-if-theres-global-financial-crisis

The China Boom Story: Alibaba And The 40 Thieves
September 08, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/china-boom-story-alibaba-and-40-thieves

China Launches CNY500 Billion In "Stealth QE"
September 16, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-16/china-launches-cny500-billion-stealth-qe

China's Economy Slams On The Brakes: 30% Of Coal Miners Unable To Pay Employees On Time
September 22, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/chinas-economy-slams-breaks-30-coal-miners-unable-pay-employees-time

Why Chinese Growth Forecasts Just Crashed To A Paltry 3.9% - And Are Going Even Lower - In One Chart
October 20, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-20/why-chinese-growth-forecasts-just-crashed-paltry-39-and-are-going-even-lower-one-cha

Mapping China's Bursting Real Estate Bubble
October 22, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-22/mapping-chinas-bursting-real-estate-bubble

Burst Chinese Housing Bubble Leads To First Annual Price Decline Since 2012; Prices Drop In Record 69 Cities
October 24, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-24/burst-chinese-housing-bubble-leads-first-annual-price-decline-2012-prices-drop-recor

Bad Debt At China's - And The World's - Largest Bank Surges By Most Ever
October 30, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-30/bad-debt-chinas-and-worlds-largest-bank-surges-most-ever

China's Shadow Banking Grinds To A Halt As Bad Debt Surges Most In A Decade
November 16, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-16/chinas-shadow-banking-grinds-halt-bad-debt-surges-most-decade

With A Hard-Landing Imminent, China Reminds Residents It Is Illegal To Jump Off Tops Of Buildings
November 22, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-22/hard-landing-imminent-china-reminds-residents-it-illegal-jump-tops-buildings

On The Looming Wall Of Chinese Defaults, Restructuring Firm Warns "You Know It's Coming"
November 22, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-22/looming-wall-chinese-defaults-restructuring-firm-warns-you-know-its-coming

Citi Faces $270 Million Loss; "In Panic" Over Chinese Port Commodity Fraud
December 06, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-06/citi-faces-270-million-loss-panic-over-chinese-port-commodity-fraud

Beijing, We Have A Problem
December 09, 2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-09/beijing-we-have-problem

And 2015 Starts Off With A Bang - First Chinese Default Of The Year Hits
January 01, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-01/and-2015-starts-bang-first-chinese-default-year-hits

China's "Illusion Of Prosperity" Exposed: Forget Ghost Cities, Meet Ghost Factories
January 02, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/chinas-illusion-prosperity-exposed-forget-ghost-cities-meet-ghost-factories

Chinese Developer Kaisa On Verge Of $5Bn Default; Who's Next?
January 08, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-08/chinese-developer-kaisa-verge-5bn-default-whos-next

5 Things To Ponder: "China Rising" Or Not?
July 10, 2015

http://streettalklive.com/index.php/daily-x-change/2800-5-things-to-ponder-china-rising-or-not.html

China's Margin Mania In Context, The "Striking" Comparison With The US And Japan
July 11, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-11/chinas-margin-mania-context-striking-comparison-us-and-japan

Is China's 'Black Box' Economy About To Come Apart?
August 08, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/chinas-black-box-economy-about-come-apart

Luxury Goods And Status Symbols In Trouble In China
August 09, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-09/luxury-goods-and-status-symbols-trouble-china

Forget The Fake Statistics: China Is A Tinderbox
August 10, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/forget-fake-statistics-china-tinderbox

China Enters Currency War - Devalues Yuan By Most On Record
August 11, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/china-devalues-yuan-fix-most-record-plunges-28-month-lows-against-dollar

China "Loses Battle Over Yuan", And Now The Global Currency War Begins
August 11, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-11/china-loses-battle-over-yuan-and-now-global-currency-war-begins

Is China Quietly Targeting A 20% Devaluation?
August 25, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-25/china-quietly-targeting-20-devaluation

The Ghost Cities Finally Died: For China's Steel Industry "The Outlook Is The Worst Ever Amid Unprecedented Losses"
October 25, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-29/ghost-cities-finally-died-chinas-steel-industry-outlook-worst-ever-amid-unprecedente

Marc Faber Fears No Soft-Landing Of China's "Credit Bubble Of Epic Proportions"
October 26, 2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-26/marc-faber-fears-no-soft-landing-chinas-credit-bubble-epic-proportions

46 Months Of Accelerating Deflation Mean Beijing Is Now Trapped
January 09, 2016

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-09/46-months-accelerating-deflation-mean-beijing-now-trapped

Full Summary Of Chinese Actions To Prevent An All-Out Economic Collapse
February 02, 2016

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-02/full-summary-chinese-actions-prevent-all-out-economic-collapse

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 Post subject: Re: China - The Bubble
PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:26 pm 
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I have several sources thinking that China was profit taking rather than a bubble... there is support for an ongoing strength. See below:

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Is China sneezing?
Is a bubble bursting in China's stock markets, or have this month's events been more about healthy profit taking?

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Thursday , 20 Aug 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Stock markets in China touched 12-month highs during the first few days of this month, and have since declined sharply, by close to 20% in some cases, creating, for some investors at least, the notion that an apparent chill may gain momentum in the country ranked for years as the epicenter of global economic growth.

In Western markets there has long been a loose rule of thumb that when markets correct by 20% or more, a bear trend is underway. Stock market levels in China, as measured by MSCI Barra, reached multi year highs in 1997, and waited a full decade to reach similar levels, as seen in October 2007. Stocks then declined on average by more than 70%, to October 2008, and then doubled before blowing off earlier this month. The levels seen earlier this month were about half the highs seen in 1997 or 2007.

But this may not allay some fears that Chinese stock markets have popped a bubble and are about to collapse. This month's sell off has been inspired mainly by a growing belief that China's monetary authorities may become somewhat hawkish, after the country's monetary base was allowed to expand by around US$1 trillion so far this year. This may, however, have been enough to create necessary upside momentum.

Seen over the longer term, China's economy has managed to post double digit annual growth for more than 30 consecutive years. For the bulls, the so-called global financial crisis, where the biggest single nuke was unquestionably the 15 September 2008 collapse of erstwhile Wall Street investment bank Lehman Bros., did little to derail China's growth record of three decades.

Chinese exports have been affected, to be sure; the country's economic growth was a relatively modest 6.1% in the first quarter of this year, but expanded to 7.9% in the second quarter. A gigantic stimulus spending package, inspired by global financial crisis, real or otherwise, was allied in China by interest rate cuts and, once again, careful driving from the centre. China's burgeoning middle class is increasingly adding a flip-side dimension to the once export-heavy economy; so far this year, industrial output has increased by 10.8%, and retail sales have expanded by 15.2%. The Goldman Sachs Group anticipates that the country's annual economic growth for 2009 could come in at 10%, a number revised upwards from 9.4%. The double digit growth record over three decades may yet survive intact.

All told, the recent sell off in Chinese stocks can be seen, for now at least, as a healthy round of profit taking. The CSI 300, a broad index measuring the performance of 300 China-listed stocks, is still 96% above its 12-month lows; the narrower Shanghai Composite is 75% above its lows. While the net performance of these indices ranks up there with the best, overall, in the world, there is little in the background to suggest that bubbles are bursting in China's stockmarkets.

From a valuations viewpoint, there is little question that stock valuations had become somewhat overcooked of late. Mining stocks, which can be most readily compared with peer-type stocks outside China, had overreached the valuation metrics derived from mining stocks elsewhere. Recent bouts of profit taking have restored a degree of neutrality to comparative valuations.

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 2:59 pm 
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Quintus wrote:
Kodiakid wrote:
Quintus
Another way to look at the chart you posted.
The dollar was lower and then made a higher low.
It made the higher low when the call for a new currency was the loudest.
Most would think its impossible for the dollar to make 92.50 but.
Looking at the chart the dollar could still be in a bear phase and make just under 92.50 also
Looking at coins dollar chart there is an attempt to draw a line under the 2 dollar bottom prices (as I have asked someone to draw in the past) that would show an uptrend.

There certainly is a lot of congestion between just over 78 and just under 82.

Last night I happened to be watching Bloomberg TV and Jim Rogers was on.
He certainly has made many great calls and some great bad calls like all of us.
He is long the dollar because "there are so many dollar bears"
Also he feels that China is in a real estate bubble ( he has been and still is a big bull on China).
IF he is correct on a RE bubble in China then why wouldn't China then experience a financial crises brought about by a real estate bust (as what happened in the US, Europe, Dubai ................and Japan at the end of the 1980's?)
Always appreciate your views.

Kodiak


I agree it could go either way and there are massive uncertainties on both sides. Hopefully things will become clearer over the next few weeks.

With respect to China, I am at a loss to understand why so many commentators take the economic data produced by the Chinese authorities at face value. I don't think our lot are any better, but come on, the Communists have a long track record of massaging statistics at all levels. It is even possible that the central government there really does believe the figures they churn out, but that the regional governments are just telling their bosses in Beijing what they want to hear.

My view is that China is in a massive bubble. I do not believe that their growth is anything like as rapid as they claim. I suspect that much of their stimulus funded activity is misdirected to areas that do not genuinely benefit their economy - 'Bridges to nowhere' syndrome, if you will.


Really, it all boils down to the fact that they remain statist looters and are likely marking time until they nationalize everything again (including their own peoples' gold, so to internationally back their currency, but only vis a vis other nations). I hope I'm wrong and they are evolving on a brilliant voyage of discovery toward laissez faire free enterprise and will become the free world's last best hope. Sorry, Jim Rogers, for my pessimism. Jab, what's your take? :FF_nerd:

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:02 pm 
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CK, As a foreigner living on the edge of China for many years now, in Hong Kong which is of it but not really, I'm kind of sick of it in terms of all the hoopla and rampant nationalism. But I respect what's happening and firmly believe that it's for real in terms of the economic path they're on (as I do for the broader Asian region as a whole). Of course there are imbalances and bubbles, and some will eventually blow up big as they do anywhere, so there will be bumps along the road, even craters at times maybe. While I have no love for the Communist Party, I have a lot of respect for the abilities of the leadership of the central government. They're quite savvy, methodical, keen to analyze what's happened elsewhere, and very fixed on their goals with a long view that governments elsewhere just aren't able to take.

There's no democracy of course, though economically that makes the country able to move forward a lot easier than say in India for instance. The trade-off for the people is prosperity and nationalism - as long as people feel they have a chance to prosper and that the Chinese are becoming a force to be reckoned with, then by and large there doesn't seem to be an urgency to have democracy. So I don't see the government nationalizing gold for instance as that's the kind of thing that would get the people riled up and upset the chase for prosperity. No, the government wants the people to do well, to build up a domestic consumption story and diversify away from the dependence on exports.

Where the threat is from the government is more towards foreign companies doing business there. It is still a highly managed economy with the state having its hands in a lot of industries. And while it obviously welcomes foreign participation, it's also quite clear that its goal is to build up domestic companies and expertise. It's been quite clever that way in terms encouraging joint ventures, transfer of knowledge, etc. So the danger to foreign companies isn't nationalization, but getting used then shunted aside, or outcompeted amid a playing field that might be stacked against you.

But generally speaking the challenge is more from the people themselves, in terms of the local entrepreneurs and a market place that wants to see domestic brands rise to the top. For instance, when Google announced that it might pull out of China, while some decried, albeit carefully, the setback to freedom of expression, others cheered the potential demise of a foreign player. The attitude being why should we have to use a foreign search engine and not have one of our at the top? After being down for so long, nationalism is very strong in China and the elixir that the Communist Party has cleverly tapped into, draping itself in the flag. So from a business perspective, it's an environment that is open but also hungry to bolster its own. In the end though, that describes a lot of countries really, if not all I suppose.

The biggest problem for China from a business perspective is corruption, particularly at the lower levels of government, and a very opaque legal system, which doesn't provide a solid framework. As for democracy, it will come eventually - but barring social upheaval, it will be on a very slow road. The current premier has said he didn't think it would happen for 25 years (and even then presumably just the first baby steps). And I read an interesting article about how they were studying places like Mexico, Egypt and Canada, for examples of "democracy" where one party managed to dominate elections over long periods of time. That's why the Communist Party has been quite clever in setting itself up as the party of economic progress and nationalist advancement, so that by the time a multiparty system comes, it ought to have a decided edge over new parties that will struggle to establish themselves across a large and regionally disparate country.

And good leaders help - I firmly believe that if you had open elections tomorrow, the current Premier, Wen Jiabao, would win in a landslide. He's very competent, has the touch for retail politics and is well liked. The test of all these things will be when the country and economy hits real bumps in the road, and a lot could go wrong, with social unrest not at all uncommon throughout the country all through these boom years, which could always spiral out of control. But the current leadership apparatus is quite savvy, much more so than in other communist parties that made the transition, and they may just be able to navigate those waters.

Anyway, that's my ramblings on China before going to bed. Hope this was of some interest.

:CM_smilebow:

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:36 pm 
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jabalong wrote:
CK, As a foreigner living on the edge of China for many years now, in Hong Kong which is of it but not really, I'm kind of sick of it in terms of all the hoopla and rampant nationalism. But I respect what's happening and firmly believe that it's for real in terms of the economic path they're on (as I do for the broader Asian region as a whole). Of course there are imbalances and bubbles, and some will eventually blow up big as they do anywhere, so there will be bumps along the road, even craters at times maybe. While I have no love for the Communist Party, I have a lot of respect for the abilities of the leadership of the central government. They're quite savvy, methodical, keen to analyze what's happened elsewhere, and very fixed on their goals with a long view that governments elsewhere just aren't able to take.

There's no democracy of course, though economically that makes the country able to move forward a lot easier than say in India for instance. The trade-off for the people is prosperity and nationalism - as long as people feel they have a chance to prosper and that the Chinese are becoming a force to be reckoned with, then by and large there doesn't seem to be an urgency to have democracy. So I don't see the government nationalizing gold for instance as that's the kind of thing that would get the people riled up and upset the chase for prosperity. No, the government wants the people to do well, to build up a domestic consumption story and diversify away from the dependence on exports.

Where the threat is from the government is more towards foreign companies doing business there. It is still a highly managed economy with the state having its hands in a lot of industries. And while it obviously welcomes foreign participation, it's also quite clear that its goal is to build up domestic companies and expertise. It's been quite clever that way in terms encouraging joint ventures, transfer of knowledge, etc. So the danger to foreign companies isn't nationalization, but getting used then shunted aside, or outcompeted amid a playing field that might be stacked against you.

But generally speaking the challenge is more from the people themselves, in terms of the local entrepreneurs and a market place that wants to see domestic brands rise to the top. For instance, when Google announced that it might pull out of China, while some decried, albeit carefully, the setback to freedom of expression, others cheered the potential demise of a foreign player. The attitude being why should we have to use a foreign search engine and not have one of our at the top? After being down for so long, nationalism is very strong in China and the elixir that the Communist Party has cleverly tapped into, draping itself in the flag. So from a business perspective, it's an environment that is open but also hungry to bolster its own. In the end though, that describes a lot of countries really, if not all I suppose.

The biggest problem for China from a business perspective is corruption, particularly at the lower levels of government, and a very opaque legal system, which doesn't provide a solid framework. As for democracy, it will come eventually - but barring social upheaval, it will be on a very slow road. The current premier has said he didn't think it would happen for 25 years (and even then presumably just the first baby steps). And I read an interesting article about how they were studying places like Mexico, Egypt and Canada, for examples of "democracy" where one party managed to dominate elections over long periods of time. That's why the Communist Party has been quite clever in setting itself up as the party of economic progress and nationalist advancement, so that by the time a multiparty system comes, it ought to have a decided edge over new parties that will struggle to establish themselves across a large and regionally disparate country.

And good leaders help - I firmly believe that if you had open elections tomorrow, the current Premier, Wen Jiabao, would win in a landslide. He's very competent, has the touch for retail politics and is well liked. The test of all these things will be when the country and economy hits real bumps in the road, and a lot could go wrong, with social unrest not at all uncommon throughout the country all through these boom years, which could always spiral out of control. But the current leadership apparatus is quite savvy, much more so than in other communist parties that made the transition, and they may just be able to navigate those waters.

Anyway, that's my ramblings on China before going to bed. Hope this was of some interest.

:CM_smilebow:


Thanks for the take, Jab! It helps to get a closer perspective in this stuff. :FF_thumbsup: If they (the Chicoms) are studying Latin America as a model for a particular economic/political trajectory, then that may prove interesting. I watch the Latin America stuff through the eyes of Spanish speaking columnists, who are specialists or very involved. I get posts from Inca Kola News Free Digest - via email (" http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/. "). They also have a blog. The guy is a socialist apologist, but, even so, has an interesting take on things mining/geologic/political. I frequently lift rocks to see what is underneath. :FF_nailbiting: :FF_surprise: :FF_thinking: :SL_ban-llama: :shoot:

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 5:53 pm 
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Thanks Jaba for someone who is there
Any comments on real estate there??

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:44 am 
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ckierst1 wrote:
Thanks for the take, Jab! It helps to get a closer perspective in this stuff. :FF_thumbsup: If they (the Chicoms) are studying Latin America as a model for a particular economic/political trajectory, then that may prove interesting. I watch the Latin America stuff through the eyes of Spanish speaking columnists, who are specialists or very involved. I get posts from Inca Kola News Free Digest - via email (" http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/. "). They also have a blog. The guy is a socialist apologist, but, even so, has an interesting take on things mining/geologic/political. I frequently lift rocks to see what is underneath. :FF_nailbiting: :FF_surprise: :FF_thinking: :SL_ban-llama: :shoot:

I don't know if Latin America really is really much of a model for China, I wouldn't think so. While my personal ideological leanings run the spectrum, coming from a country like Canada where socialism isn't overwhelmingly a bad word, I'm not at all unsympathetic to the left. But that said, I kind of throw my hands up in frustration at Latin America, as it seems stuck in this sort of back and forth between left and right, both recycling tired old approaches that perpetuate a kind of mediocre spinning of wheels. I only say this because it seems to me that a lot of the left-wing governments in Latin America have an inherent disdain for capitalism from what I can tell. But if so, the Chinese communists are a very different breed now.

Whereas I get the impression that entrepreneurs / capitalists are almost seen as a necessary evil in some of these Latin American countries, in China the Communist Party has really exalted them and placed them firmly as the driver of the new China. And rather than resisting capitalism, the chase of it in the pursuit of prosperity is really the new mantra. But the government is very mindful that most of the population is still outside looking in and therein lies the motivation to really manage the economy and pace of growth to try and navigate the imbalances and preserve harmony. So President Hu Jintao came out with building an "Harmonious Society" as the key aspiration today, which is to say one where the economic advancement continues as quickly as possible, but while trying to manage the excesses in terms of corruption, environmental damage, social inequity, etc.

So to my mind that's a key difference with my perception of some countries in Latin America and elsewhere, in that the Chinese government really believes in entrepreneurialism and an idea of capitalism as what's really going to lift its people out of poverty and vault China into a leadership position this century. But they want to manage the dragon they've unleashed so that it doesn't destabilize the social order in the process. And of course the Communist Party wants to remain the one holding the levers of power, as such parties typically do. And as democratic reforms eventually come in, it will seek to keep itself in the driver's seat.

At first I think this will be still through coercive means and rigging the deck, like in other nominally multiparty states but that are really one-party states (say Egypt, Mexico in the past or even Singapore today). And eventually, way down the road, when other parties become viable and make breakthroughs, and when brute coercion is no longer an option and the rules of the game become more even, then I think it will look to occupy as much of the middle ground and be the natural governing party (say like in Canada up until recently). This is my vision if it is able to manage that transition over the course of the first half of this century. But maybe it won't be able to, as these things are often hard to control once you get holes in the damn, in which case the politics of China would probably become as much of a wild west as other aspects of the country's development. But for now my money would be on the Communist Party and the first option.

One last point, as I kind of digressed back into the politics. To go back to your original question about what model they may be following - the short answer is the Chinese are studying everyone and everything. Like in all communist countries, there is whole apparatus that studies all this stuff. But whereas in the past, this would have just served only to indoctrinate with the existing propaganda (what you undoubtedly have say in North Korea now), in China while it still serves this purpose in part as the Communist Party forms its new generations of leaders, it is also very much open to the world in terms of genuinely studying other models, whether it be in politics, economics or whatever.

There's no simple answer as to China's path, but rather that it strives to create its own path with the lessons and experience from elsewhere that it thinks most makes sense. You've got a very analytical leadership right now (for instance both the president and premier are engineers), which recognizes that the country is well behind in many ways and seeks to analyze its problems and create deliberate, long-term plans for advancing all aspects of the society. And this mindset very much permeates the Communist Party today, at least the upper echelons - and we'll see what the next group of leaders is like in a couple of years.

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:47 am 
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Kodiakid wrote:
Thanks Jaba for someone who is there
Any comments on real estate there??

Haven't really been following the property market in China of late or its implications for the economy. Can offer a couple of general observations on it watching the property market here in Hong Kong and with somewhat of a window into mainland Chinese property investors (more and more of whom are buying property here). The Chinese, here or there, seem to love property. This is in a fundamental way in terms of owning land, something tangible, it's important to the Chinese.

That said, looking at Hong Kong, they also seem to approach the property market with the fervour of gamblers in a casino. Speculating on the local property market here has to be one of the leading pastimes. When the market's going well as it has been in recent years (with a temporary interruption around the height of the financial crisis), new developments sell the lion's share of their units in days, properties are flipped over and over, and prices can increase in double digit percentages each year. The Economist just released a study suggesting that Hong Kong property prices are now about 50% overvalued on an historical basis of some measure over the past few decades. Yet the party goes on. And this isn't even the height of it, it's been much more frenzied in the past. You'd think it would be a disaster waiting to happen, and for some eventually it will be. But Hong Kong's been through this many times, it's a very manic place, you make as much money as you can while you can before it goes bad, then it all starts again, nothing changes.

Now Hong Kong isn't mainland China, with the property markets being quite different, albeit more connected as more mainland hot money flows in. But I think there's something of a similar psychology in China, especially in some of the more richer markets like Shanghai. From what I hear, you have the same kind of tendency to speculate, it's the Chinese, they love to gamble and they love to play the property market. So there's no doubt that bubbles form, which is why you often seen the governments, here in Hong Kong and in China, moving to try and cool the market from time to time. Eventually, you'll get corrections as anywhere.

But China also some fundamental things going for it. The country's in the midst of a long-term increases in living standards and urbanization. When we're talking property mania, it's in the cities. I've read that the urbanization rate is something like 1-1.5% a year, so that's about 13-20 million new city dwellers each year, who need somewhere to buy or rent. I don't have a number on hand, but every year you've also got millions upon millions joining the middle class, and in a position to look at buying property. So you'll get corrections in the market presumably, but you've also got a lot of new blood pumping into the system each year. This isn't to justify the crazy price increases, but to suggest that at least there will continue to be demand for that housing, and that's it's not all white-elephant development.

So I don't know, the property market is one area of constant concern certainly for the authorities, but I don't know that it's an Achilles Heel waiting to trip up China's growth story like the role we saw the housing problem in the US play during the financial crisis. Came across this article, which has a variety of views on this, including some links to blogs on China's economy and property markets, which would have some much more knowledgeable views that anything I can offer on this:

http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/12/another_real_estate_bubble_--_in_china.php

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 2:18 pm 
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Jaba
Thanks for the info and the link.
The Chinese like to gamble :FF_thinking:
Perhaps it is a smaller group that is involved in the RE markets but
As in the west
This is where huge chunks of value disappeared.
Poof...................it was gone.
And it did affect lots of industries. :conical_hat:
We shall see.
Kodiak

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 Post subject: Re: GOLD PRICE 25 January 2010
PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 3:03 pm 
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When you consider that most of China's population is still made up of rural "peasants" basically, then certainly those involved in the urban real estate markets are a small percentage. But then it's this new urban middle class that's key and if they take a hit on property then obviously that's hitting at the core of the country's wealth base. You're right of course that when a correction inevitably hits, that is huge chunks of value that disappear with the ensuing knock-on effects for those who find themselves with reduced or even negative equity. So the question is to what degree such a correction in the property market would throw into the overall economy and I don't know the answer, but somehow I think China would be quite resilient though it's not to say it wouldn't hurt.

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 Post subject: Re: China - The Bubble
PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:19 pm 
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This guy says "China’s growth may be slowing, but the Shanghai Composite has gained 100% in one year. China bubble or not, investors should pay close attention." What do you think ?
He advises investors looking to ride the rally higher for the time being and add some international flare to their portfolios should consider a few exchange-traded fund (ETF) options for safety.
http://www.profitconfidential.com/chine ... -via-etfs/


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